• Home
  • Pro
  • Partners
  • Help and support
  • English
  • Italiano
  • Español
  • Français
Pepperstone logo
Pepperstone logo
  • Ways to trade
    • Trading accounts

      Choose from two account types depending on your strategy

    • 24-hour trading

      Trade CFDs on key US shares 24/5.

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possble fees

    • Trading hours
    • Maintenance schedule
    • Risk management
    • Funding and withdrawals
  • Markets
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Cryptocurrencies

      Speculate on Bitcoin, Ether and more, with a trusted broker

    • Shares
    • ETF
    • Indices
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
  • Trading platforms
    • TradingView

      Trade through supercharts with tight spreads

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
  • Market analysis
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

  • About us
    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
    • Trading accounts

      Choose from two account types depending on your strategy

    • 24-hour trading

      Trade CFDs on key US shares 24/5.

    • Pricing

      Discover our tight spreads, plus all other possble fees

    • Trading hours
    • Maintenance schedule
    • Risk management
    • Funding and withdrawals
    • Forex

      Get great rates on majors like EUR/USD, plus minors and exotics

    • Commodities

      Trade on metals, energies & softs, with oil spreads from 2 cents

    • Cryptocurrencies

      Speculate on Bitcoin, Ether and more, with a trusted broker

    • Shares
    • ETF
    • Indices
    • Currency indices
    • Dividends for index CFDs
    • Dividends for share CFDs
    • CFD forwards
    • TradingView

      Trade through supercharts with tight spreads

    • MetaTrader 5

      Explore the apex in trading automation with our execution tech

    • The Pepperstone platform
    • MetaTrader 4
    • cTrader
    • Trading tools
    • Navigating markets

      Latest news and analysis from our experts

    • The Daily Fix

      Your regular round-up of key events

    • Meet the analysts

      Our global team giving your trading the edge

    • Who we are

      Pepperstone was born from the dream of making trading better

    • Company news
    • Company awards
    • Protecting clients online
USD
US500
Gold

US election playbook

Chris Weston
Chris Weston
Head of Research
Sep 25, 2020
Share
As the market turns its attention to Trump’s Supreme Court Justice nomination and next week’s (29th September at 9pm ET) first live Presidential debate in Cleveland, there is no doubt the market is now fiercely debating the US election as a pivotal moment for markets.

The Presidential debates themselves should give us renewed insight into the candidates ability to ‘be presidential’, views on the economy, the integrity of the election itself, COVID-19, and aspects like race and violence.

We’ve already heard a lot and understand where both parties stand on policy. We can assess polls; political forecasting models and we look at price moves in the market and see that volatility is rising in anticipation of this event.

That said, given a primary job of any trader is to manage risk, it can be advantageous to have a framework around marquee volatility events like a US election. To try and how markets trade into the election as polls change and the probability of each scenario playing out evolves - where the connection between the make-up of Congress, the ability to implement policy and what that means for monetary policy and markets more broadly is key.

Here is my simplistic playbook on how markets could react given the various scenarios, although, I have left out a Contested election. Naturally, my thesis could prove to be completely incorrect, and many will disagree with the reactions I believe will play out, but it’s about the framework. We will update this periodically, with probability outcomes.

election-playbook.png

Related articles

US Election 2020: TV Debates and a possible watershed moment?

US Election 2020: TV Debates and a possible watershed moment?

US election: Why a blue wave may be the USD’s most bullish case

US election: Why a blue wave may be the USD’s most bullish case

US

Ready to trade?

It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.

Get startedSubscribe to The Daily Fix

The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.

Other Sites

  • The Trade Off
  • Partners
  • Group
  • Careers

Ways to Trade

  • Pricing
  • Trading Accounts
  • Pro
  • Active trader Program
  • Trading Hours

Platforms

  • Trading Platforms
  • Trading tools

Markets and Symbols

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • ETFs
  • Indicies
  • Commodities
  • Currency indicies
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • CFD Forwards

Analysis

  • Navigating Markets
  • The Daily Fix
  • Meet the Analysts

Learn to Trade

  • Trading Guides
  • Videos
  • Webinars
Pepperstone logo
support@pepperstone.com
0035725030573
195, Makarios III Avenue, Neocleous House,
3030, Limassol Cyprus
  • Legal documents
  • Privacy policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Cookie policy
  • Sitemap

© 2025 Pepperstone EU Limited
Company Number ΗΕ 398429 | Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission Licence Number 388/20

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Trading derivatives is risky. It isn't suitable for everyone and, in the case of Professional clients, you could lose substantially more than your initial investment. You don't own or have rights in the underlying assets. Past performance is no indication of future performance and tax laws are subject to change. The information on this website is general in nature and doesn't take into account your or your client's personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Please read our legal documents and ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions. We encourage you to seek independent advice.

Pepperstone EU Limited is a limited company registered in Cyprus under Company Number ΗΕ 398429 and is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (Licence Number 388/20). Registered office: 195, Makarios III Avenue, Neocleous House, 3030, Limassol Cyprus.

The information on this site is not intended for residents of Belgium, Spain or the United States, or use by any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.