Website Config

sb-stt.jpg

1. CSS which hides CSS bar on every page
2. Fixes an issue with font size of lead paragraph in articles

Hide search bar & lead paragraph

Google-developed script, used to control and deploy other scripts

Google Tag Manager (Head Tag)

Google Tag Manager (Body Tag)

首页

2024 US Presidential Election

添加资金

访问您的收入和客户详情

我们要求您更新您的个人信息。

请更新您的详细信息

使用真实资金提升您的交易水平。准备好后，升级您的账户。

升级至实盘交易

为了进行实时交易，您需要完成申请，这只需几分钟。

完成您的申请

Cookies alert

<p><span>对于网站以及我们的产品和服务的运行至关重要的 Cookie。您无法停用这些 cookie。</span></p>

<p><span>Cookie 使我们能够改进我们的产品和网站，使我们能够根据您的个人喜好定制我们的网站。</span></p>

<p><span>Cookie 使我们能够在第三方网站上提供信息和广告并衡量我们营销活动的有效性。</span></p>

<h3>Cookie 政策</h3><p>要了解有关我们如何在本网站上使用 Cookie 的更多信息，请参阅<a href="https://eu-assets.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltaec35894448c7261/blt15187f5ae2ce2bfd/Pepperstone_Group_Limited_Cookies_Policy.pdf" target="_blank">此处的 Cookie 政策</a>。您可以在下面管理您的 cookie 首选项。如果您使用浏览器清除 cookie，则下次访问该网站时可能需要再次设置您的首选项。</p>

<h3>我们重视您的隐私</h3><p>我们和我们批准的合作伙伴使用 cookie 来确保我们的网站正常运行并且您的数据安全。我们还使用可选的 cookie 来帮助我们改进我们的网站并个性化此处和其他网站上的内容。</p><p>通过接受所有 cookie，我们可以为您提供最佳的在线体验。未经您的同意，我们不会使用可选 cookie，您可以随时更改您的偏好或撤回您的同意。</p><p>如需了解更多信息，请查看我们的 <a href="https://eu-assets.contentstack.com/v3/assets/bltaec35894448c7261/blt15187f5ae2ce2bfd/Pepperstone_Group_Limited_Cookies_Policy.pdf" target="_blank">Cookie 政策</a>。</p>

<p><span>请注意，只有当您接受所有 cookie 时，才可以使用实时聊天支持</span></p>

Dark

Cookies popup

法律文件

隐私政策

网站条款与条件

Cookie政策

举报人政策

其他网站.

交易方式

平台

市场与符号

分析

学习交易

pepperstone-logo-inverse-rgb.svg

其他 Pepperstone 网站

facebook-grey.svg

Facebook

twitter-grey.svg

Twitter

Personal footer

Geo Alert

Lost your way?

开立真实账户

Primary CTA v2

Webtrader

登录客户端

支持

关于我们

介绍个朋友

Homepage

Pepperstone-logo-rgb.svg

pepperstone-white.svg

Light Grey

个人

合作伙伴

集团

Personal site

我们进行了一些更改，以提供更好的体验。您现在可以在用户图标下找到您的帐户。

在找您的帐户吗？

由于不活动，您将很快被注销。

Inactivity Monitor

Pepperstone Pro

帮助和支持

专业

开启 Webtrader

Launch webtrader

概览

定价

交易账户

高净值客户

好友推荐计划

活跃交易者计划

交易时间

维护计划

概述

交易平台

集成

交易工具

外汇

股票

交易所交易基金

指数

大宗商品

货币指数

指数差价合约股息

股票差价合约股息

差价合约远期

市场和符号

市场导航

 每日简报

会见分析师

交易指南

网络研讨会

我们是谁

公司新闻

獎項

联系我们

Public Website Main Navigation

专业人员

优质客户

积极交易者计划

维护

Pepperstone 定价

市场

外汇差价合约

股票差价合约

ETF 差价合约

指數差價合約

商品差价合约

货币指数差价合约

指数差价合约的股息

股票差价合约的股息

在一个平台上绘制图表和进行交易

TradingView

Pepperstone 平台

MetaTrader 5

MetaTrader 4

cTrader

市场分析

有关主要市场的文章和视频

驾驭市场

每日市場報導與更新

每日新闻

我們團隊的專家見解

About us

保护在线客户

市场与产品

为何选择 Pepperstone？

我们的奖项

高级客户服务

活跃交易者（Active trader）平台

法人机构识别编码 （LEI)

價錢

点差、掉期和佣金

资金和取款

深度流动性

专业客户

我们如何确保您的资金安全

交易产品

入金和出金

立即开始

平台和工具

社交平台交易

Capitalise.ai

市场新闻

经济日历

我们的分析师

教育

学习交易外汇

学习交易差价合约

在线讲座

Risk warning

由于长时间未操作，您需要重新登录。

Session Expiry Popup

<p>此处提供的材料并未按照旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求准备，因此被视为市场沟通之用途。虽然在传播投资研究之前不受任何禁止交易的限制，但我们不会在将其提供给我们的客户之前寻求利用任何优势。</p><p>Pepperstone 并不表示此处提供的材料是准确、最新或完整的，因此不应依赖于此。该信息，无论是否来自第三方，都不应被视为推荐；或买卖要约；或征求购买或出售任何证券、金融产品或工具的要约；或参与任何特定的交易策略。它没有考虑读者的财务状况或投资目标。我们建议此内容的任何读者寻求自己的建议。未经 Pepperstone 批准，不得复制或重新分发此信息。</p>

Article Disclaimer (Market Analysis)

Authenticated Homepage - ZH-AU

我的账户

Trading Accounts

入金

出金

转账

交易历史

Account Actions

访问交易平台

Access Trading platforms

工具和计算器

Tools and platforms

申请 Pepperstone激石 Pro

朋友介绍

Promotions

Partners

留下反馈

Feedback

Instagram

Profile Menu - ZH-AU

查看个人资料

support-button-icon.svg

客户支持

UI text

只需少量入金便可随时开始交易。我们简单的申请流程仅需几分钟便可完成申请。

rippling-blue.png

Ready to trade? (Market Analysis)

<p>Traders also need to consider: </p><ul><li>Quantifying the level of Trump tariff risk premium already priced in the USD and other markets. </li><li>Who becomes president but also which party controls the House and the Senate (Congress) and the make-up of Congress. If one party were to get a sweep this could have significant implications for markets, and the extent of the potential moves in price.&nbsp; </li><li>The timing of the results – with the polls so close, it seems likely that recounts will occur in some of the 7 battleground states, which could delay the result.&nbsp; </li><li>Changes in underlying liquidity conditions – reduced liquidity conditions in the order book as we head towards 5 November would exacerbate movement, increase volatility and potentially result in wider bid-offer spreads. </li><li>Whether the numbers used in the respective campaigns are realistic or simply campaign rhetoric designed to get votes.&nbsp; </li><li>Whether the one-off rise in import prices from tariffs has any bearing on the Fed’s thinking on future rate cuts.&nbsp; </li></ul><h3>The current state of the race&nbsp;</h3>

<h3>Current expectations of movement on election day in key markets&nbsp;</h3><p>Using options pricing, we can assess the implied move on the day of the election in some of Pepperstone’s core markets, and many other election expressions. These implied moves change dynamically on the demand for volatility – we highlight a snapshot of the current implied movement for the day of the election.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>Scenario 1 - Trump president / Split Congress (DEMs control the House / REP the Senate)</h2><p></p><p><strong>Key policies to focus on</strong> – Trump has campaigned heavily on raising tariffs on countries that run a sizeable trade surplus with the US. Notably, Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 35ppt to 60%, with a minimum 10% blanket tariff on all imports. While Trump would find it hard to pass many of the more prominent fiscal measures through the House, he can raise the tariff rate through orders without the blessing of Congress.&nbsp;</p><p>So in this scenario, tariff risk, international relations, and the subsequent countermeasures from the countries affected will immediately become the central focus.&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>Trading expressions that align with this election outcome and rising tariff risk:</strong></h3><p><strong></strong></p><ul><li>Long USDMXN &amp; USDCAD</li><li>Short MXNJPY&nbsp;</li><li>Long USDCNH</li><li>Long USDBRL</li><li>Long USDKRW&nbsp;</li><li>Short EURUSD &amp; EURCHF</li><li>Long US30 / short US500 (as a pairs trade)</li><li>Long US2000 / short HK50 (as a pairs trade)</li><li>Long Solano, Bitcoin or Ethereum&nbsp;</li><li>Short Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN.US)</li></ul><h2>Scenario 2 - The ‘Red Sweep’ - Trump president / REP controlled Congress (House &amp; Senate)</h2><p>A ‘Red Wave’ scenario, where the GOP party controls both chambers of Congress, opens the prospect of Trump going even harder on tariffs, initiating new tariffs on a far wider range of goods – the question then becomes whether uses tariffs as a negotiation tool (like we saw in 2018), or to raise revenues.&nbsp;</p><p>Trump would also have a smoother passage to push for the deregulation of industry, tax changes, and a wider range of fiscal measures. Given these fiscal measures would significantly increase the deficit in the years ahead, one suspects they would need to be offset and funded by tariffs. This suggests in this scenario tariffs would need to be a significant revenue raiser, or the bond market could express clear disappointment, resulting in a trend higher in Treasury yields.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>While traders have bought volatility through optionality, a ‘Red sweep’ outcome is far from priced into FX, equity or bond markets.</p><p></p><p><strong>The key policies that could move markets:</strong></p><ul><li>Increased scope and scale of trade tariffs</li><li>A 1ppt cut to the corporate tax rate to 20%</li><li>The full rollover of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in late 2025</li><li>Reduced regulatory oversight&nbsp;</li><li>Reduced immigration&nbsp;</li></ul><h3>Trading expressions that align with a ‘Red Sweep’ scenario&nbsp;</h3><ul><li>‘Buy US-focused risk assets’&nbsp;</li><li>Short US 10-Treasury futures (USTN10YR) or the TLT ETF – US bonds would likely be sold on higher US growth expectations and expectations of increased future Treasury supply to fund the increasing deficit.&nbsp;</li><li>Long USDs on a broad basis:<ul><li>USDJPY and USDCHF – Where both FX pairs benefit from higher US Treasury yields&nbsp;</li><li>Long USDCNH – as we saw in 2018, the PBoC may offset higher tariffs by depreciating the yuan.&nbsp;</li><li>Short EURUSD – A move below 1.0500 seems likely.&nbsp;</li><li>Long AUDJPY – a risk on trade that should follow US equity indices higher</li></ul></li><li>Long Solano, Bitcoin or Ethereum&nbsp;</li><li>Long US2000 either as a straight directional trade or tactically vs short US30 or HK50</li><li>Long KRE ETF (US regional bank ETF)</li><li>Long US companies with low import exposure and high domestic sales&nbsp;</li><li>Long XOP ETC (S&amp;P Oil and Gas Exploration and Production) – Trump has suggested the US would produce a further 3 mbd of crude production.&nbsp;</li></ul><h2>Scenario 3 – Harris president / Split Congress (DEMs control the House / REP the Senate)</h2><p>The status quo scenario, with Harris unlikely to pass her proposed market-moving fiscal measures through the Senate. Here we see markets rapidly remove and reprice Trump tariff premium and revert to looking at the macro factors which were in play pre-election – the health of the US economy, nonfarm payrolls, and relative growth and interest rate settings.&nbsp;</p><h3>Trading expressions that align with a Harris win and a split Congress scenario&nbsp;</h3><p></p><ul><li>The USD initially trades lower across the board as any legacy tariff risk is removed.&nbsp;</li><li>US equity (all indices) initially trades lower but finds support as the status quo remains supportive of risk.&nbsp;</li><li>Long US 10-Treasury futures (USTN10YR) or the TLT ETF – while Harris’s key policies won’t pass through Congress, a divided Congress and a president who favours tax hikes is a bond-friendly outcome, at least for the long-end of the Treasury curve.&nbsp;</li></ul><p>Keep up to date with our research, daily market outlooks and videos on the <a href="/analysis/trade-us-election/" target="_self">Pepperstone US Election hub</a> – good luck to all.&nbsp;</p>

hero-lp-us-election.jpg

Trading the US Election - Tactical trades to play

<p>Traders will be on the lookout to see how these events impact future polls, and how changes in the polls influence the conviction of market players wanting to express US election trades.</p><p>As we see in the US election schedule, we lay out a combination of political events that could influence voting intentions, as well as two important FOMC meetings – both have the potential to alter sentiment and our trading environment.</p>

<h3><strong>The optimal time to express US election trades</strong></h3><p>As we opined in <a href="/analysis/navigating-markets/analysis-can-help-traders-through-the-US-election/" target="_self">“How technical analysis and price action analysis can help traders through the US election</a>”, one of the key factors when trading through the US election cycle is to consider the optimal time to express election trades. When we have a thorough knowledge of the market-impacting policies for both the Republican and Democratic parties, we can consider how certain markets may react to changes in the polling and the probability that these policies are implemented.</p><p>Of course, the market itself is the best guide on how the collective is expressing their probability of an election outcome. So when the election becomes the dominant focus of market participants, we’ll see a clear reaction in markets to changes in the polls.</p>

election becomes the dominant focus of market participants, we’ll see a clear reaction in markets to changes in the polls. 

<h3><strong>Looking at when media interest in the US election picks up</strong></h3><p>Sentiment in markets can be heavily influenced by social media and a broad array of news publications. In the November 2020 US election, it wasn’t until 23 October that we started seeing a truly noticeable pick up in articles mentioning the US election. It won't surprise that on the week of the election, the news flow was deafening.</p><p></p><h3><strong>Total news articles containing “US Election” (weekly)</strong></h3><p></p>

Total news articles containing “US Election” (weekly)

<h3><strong>When has the financial market typically reacted?</strong></h3><p>By way of a guide on US equity volatility, the 5-day average of the S&amp;P500 daily high-low price range spiked in early September to 90 points and stayed relatively elevated right through November.</p><p>Looking at the VIX index (S&amp;P500 30-day implied volatility) as a proxy of equity volatility, it wasn’t until late October that we saw heightened implied volatility in the S&amp;P500, with traders buying portfolio protection and hedging equity risk, with the VIX index hitting 41% just before the election.</p><p>In the 2020 election, it was USDMXN that became a default expression of Trump’s prospects of being re-elected President, with traders selling the MXN given Trump’s campaign policy to walk away from NAFTA</p>

In the 2020 election, it was USDMXN that became a default expression of Trump’s prospects of being re-elected President, with traders selling the MXN given Trump’s campaign policy to walk away from NAFTA 

<p>Looking at the daily chart in the lead-up to the US election, we can also see the 5-day average of the daily high-low trading ranges (red line) rising sharply from 18 September, before peaking in late September. We also saw strong buying interest from 18 September, with the pair rallying 9% as the polls shifted in Trump’s favour, before resuming its long-term downtrend.</p><p><strong></strong></p><h3><strong>Considering market liquidity and the cost to trade</strong></h3><p>Another factor that can lead to exaggerated price movement and higher trading costs is liquidity. Liquidity can take many forms, but in this case, I am looking at order book liquidity, and the ease to transact at the quoted bid-offer price. In 2020 top liquidity in the order books was well contained, with S&amp;P500 futures bid-offer spreads only noticeably widening in the week before the election.</p><p><strong>(S&amp;P500 futures bid-offer spread / mid-point)</strong></p>

The key dates of influence through the US election cycle

分析

2024 US Presidential Election

Tactical trades and market outcomes: who will win the 2024 US election?

做好交易准备了吗？